NHS Backlog – Where Are We Now?

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A couple of years ago, we analysed the NHS backlog, including some of its underlying causes, along with the plans in place to address it. More recently, we assessed the current state of A&E waiting times across the NHS.

The UK now has a new Labour government. The 2024 Labour manifesto promised to “build an NHS fit for the future.”

In this post, we’ll look at the current state of the NHS backlog and explore Labour’s plans for addressing these challenges.

What is the NHS Backlog?

They define the backlog as “the care the NHS would normally have delivered, but which was disrupted as COVID-19 impacted service delivery”. This incorporates cancelled procedures, delayed or refused referrals, and patients on waiting lists for treatments who would ordinarily have been seen by now.

The BMA also recognises “patients who have not yet presented to the GP… due to concerns of burdening the health service…” This implies that it’s impossible to measure the full extent of the lockdown. There’s a “hidden backlog” to contend with, too.

NHS Backlog in 2024 – What Does It Look Like Right Now?

According to the latest BMA figures, more patients than ever are currently waiting for treatment. In May 2024, there were a total of 6,377,599 individual patients waiting for treatment in England alone. Almost half of these patients have been waiting for over 18 weeks, and over 300,000 have been waiting for over a year.

The BMA regularly updates their figures on the NHS backlog.

Long-Term Issues and Brand-New Challenges

The backlog can still be largely attributed to the immense disruption brought by COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns. Yet even before the pandemic struck, demand for hospital treatment was outstripping capacity.

The NHS has a long-term plan of ensuring that 92% of patients should receive treatment within 18 months of referral. The last time this target was met was in September 2015.

To make matters worse, in July 2024 a global IT outage plunged many industries into chaos. This affected many healthcare services, with GP practices warning that they’re now facing a “considerable backlog” in appointments.

The New Labour Government’s Plans For the NHS

In their election manifesto, Labour outlined their plans for the NHS as follows:

  • Cut waiting times with 40,000 more appointments each week.
  • Double the number of cancer scanners.
  • A new Dentistry Rescue Plan.
  • 8,500 additional mental health staff.
  • Return of the family doctor.

Referencing the NHS backlog, the manifesto said:

“We will return to meeting NHS performance standards. That means patients should expect to wait no longer than 18 weeks from referral for consultant-led treatment of non-urgent health conditions. This standard was achieved with the last Labour government and will be again under the next.”

Here’s how Labour plan to achieve these goals:

  • Incentivising staff to carry out additional appointments out of hours.
  • Pooling resources across neighbouring hospitals to introduce shared waiting lists to allow patients to be treated quicker.
  • Using spare capacity in the independent sector to ensure patients are diagnosed and treated more quickly.
  • “Reset relations with NHS staff” to address treatments affected by staff strikes.

What are the New Government’s Targets for the NHS Backlog?

Labour’s target is to clear the waiting time for elective treatment of over 18 weeks within five years. Analysis in the BMJ has outlined the practical, political, and financial considerations that will be necessary for Labour to achieve this target.

“Short of achieving near miraculous improvements in economic growth,” the report says, “the stark choices over NHS funding will have profound implications for the incoming government’s entire programme.”

We have already seen one of Labour’s policy pledges in action: The plan to draw from spare capacity in the independent sector to diagnose NHS patients. Since April, the Sussex Elective Co-ordination Centre has been helping over 400 NHS patients a week access private care facilities.

Yet at the time of writing, the new Labour government has been in place for less than a month. Obviously, it is still far too early to assess their success in clearing the NHS backlog. The BMA figures suggest that things are as bad as they’ve ever been. Yet hopefully, things can only get better.

Support For NHS Healthcare Providers

At Cairn Technology, we specialise in improving quality and efficiency in healthcare settings.

While we cannot help you address long waiting lists in your NHS healthcare setting, we can help you to improve staff safety and well-being while reducing turnaround times between certain procedures.

For a friendly chat about how we can help you, get in touch to talk to one of our experts today.